Big Picture - Mother of All....

bennett zamani Updated on Sep 20, 2025

Market Outlook

The market doesn't need the cut, but the mob wants it and sometimes you have to throw some loaves of bread into the crowd to keep them at bay.

What a trading week we just had. The market saw a real shift in leadership as the S&P 500 finally took the torch from Nasdaq, which had been carrying the load since May.

As the S&P 500 took the index lead, it is still getting within striking distance of the mother of all trend lines. This resistance trend level has been respected for the last 1,000 trading day. This might sound like the classic "wall of worry" that causes the market to drift higher. But history reminds us the market gets easier as major rally run. These are often warning signs. Just think about our own trades recently, even my own. Virtually every alert is flying higher. As soon as we buy a stock lately, we are immediately rewarded.

Take WMT, we nailed the move. TSLA? We highlighted the 360 breakout, and within two days it touched nearly 400. These are the kinds of runs that make us feel like we’re better traders than we really are. When in reality, it’s the power of a bull market doing the heavy lifting. We’re reaping the rewards of putting capital to work, but we need to stay mindful of the tailwinds helping us.

Mr Market loves to help everyone right before he pulls the rug over our heads. In the short term we should expect the mother of all trendlines to get tested to the upside. We just have to be aware that when everything looks perfect, its right before the clouds roll in.

As ranges get tighter and the market grinds higher, red-flag sell signals will become easier to spot. Most traders will still be overly confident during this transition. But I’ve already set alerts to remind us when we’re crossing into hubris territory and when it’s time to de-risk. Just like I did back in April when it was time to buy.

All eyes now turn to Wedneday, Powell most likely will give the market a .25% rate cut with the reason being a weak labor market. Rate cuts are fuel to a fire for a weak market, for a strong market at highs, a rare time for a rate cut, acts as rocket fuel. But its not immediate rocket fuel, its long term rocket fuel.

The market doesn't need the cut, but the mob wants it and sometimes you have to throw some loaves of bread into the crowd to keep them at bay.

If Powell does cut rates with a stock market at highs, this would be the 3rd time this happened in the last 30 years. An extremely rare occurance, if we go back the last 50 years, anytime that the FED has cut rates with a market at record highs. The market has traded higher a year later 100% of the time but that does not mean there isn't short term volatility to consider.

Rate cut or not on Wednesday, we will have to touch this mother of all trend lines and just look at how small the arrow was to touch it. Even if we get a rate cut that could be the short term sell the news event that catches most people by surpise in the short term. But over the next year it will be a bullish catalyst to keep this bull market party alive. When times are bad, I'll remind you to buy and when times are too good, I'm hear to remind you of that as well.

This has been one of the strongest 5 month rallies in market history, with the Big Picture model surging 35%+ since that statement was made.

Let's continue to ride these winners as long as we can. Let's be ready if theres short term selling pressure at the mother of all trend lines. If we get a rate cut on Wednesday, it could be a short term sell the news event, however a great sign for the market over the next year. Continue to focus on the big picture and avoid getting too wrapped up in the day to day noise.

From Bennett

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Macro Rotation Outlook

SPY

Dow Jones

Nasdaq

Mid Caps

Small Caps

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Sector Rotation

Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.

Tech

Energy

Industrial

Telecom

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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.

Materials

Consumer Discretionary

Financials

REIT

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Defensive - sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.

Consumer Staples

Healthcare

Bio Tech

Utilities

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Big Picture Watchlist

BSX

GLD

GLW

HLT

KNSA

MLM

PII

RRR

ROKU

TSLA

WMT

Side Lesson - Mother of All Bases

After a 50% rally since July, my largest long term holding, BABA looked ripe for some profit taking. On Thursday, I almost made a blunder from a nearly 5 year long term hold.

These short term decisions are the hard reality that comes with long term investing. My conviction in BABA has not changed but the PnL swing was similar to a kid getting lured into a candy store.

After posting about it in the chat, I said to myself "I can take some profits up here and buy it back cheaper." That latter part of the sentence was the reverse high five sell signal. The last time I said this was in the Take Our Money Challege, and when I followed that thinking I sold the name I was buying all year for a marginal gain right before it went on a 100% run higher. I ended up in 2nd place in the challenge as a result.

As I posted the idea in the chat and did some more digging by zooming out by looking at the big picture. It was extremely clear that yes this short term run would make sense to take profits, but in the bigger scheme of things. BABA has offically left the stage 1 base that it's been in for nearly the last half decade.

This is barely the 1st inning of this new stage, this was the time to hold, not sell. Sure it can fade and pull back, maybe even to my cost basis of $120. However the tide has changed and its time to reap the rewards, not give them away for tiny gains.

Had I kept that thought to myself, I could have quietly took the 30% gain and called it prudent. But for what? When in reality, this could easily turn into a 300% gain in a year or two.

The through line here is simple: say your ideas before you act on them. The better you can get your ideas out of your head and onto virtual paper, the better you will perform. Sometimes the ideas are great, and sometimes the ideas are dumb. If I ask you what is the setup, thats code word for a bad set up. This year I've had 69% good ideas while the other 31% were dumb ones.

I share all my ideas with you, as that is one of the core reasons why you are apart of Big Picture. But by having to share all my ideas, I can avoid far more of my ideas that fail or get rid of them as quickly as possible.

This year I have taken 88 of my ideas, and you can see I practice what I pearch, my only outlier of a trade was at the depth of the bear market in April. You can see periods where I trade actively and periods where I wait. When I say I am to get out of losers as close to breakeven its very clear I do exactly that.

But having to share my ideas outloud helps keeps the winning percentage high. When I tell you to post every idea you have, its not to keep the chat buzzing. Its to help you flush out the good from the bad. Doing that this week for myself saved me from a massive mistake. As I still have every single share of BABA I've patiently bought for the last half decade.

The mother of all mistakes is the one you didn't talk through thoroughly prior to executing.

Stay patient. Think in stages, not days. And say it out loud before you click that button.

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bennett zamani Designer

Experienced Designer

Updated on Sep 20, 2025