Market Outlook
We got a bit of a snap back towards the end of the week where buyers finally seemed to have returned to the party. But, the sellers holding down the recent resistence area of 660 were very much present. At the start of March, we saw somewhat similar price action when we still were looking at potential new ATH breaks.
The longer 660 continues to act as resistance coming into the week ahead, the more likely we continue to roll over in the current stage 4 breakdown that the market is in.
During these often short lived mini rallies inside broader weakness from the market, things can look temporarily optimistic. Even with a few set ups starting to show themselves.
Sector wise, Energy as we all know continues to lead the charge. Even if they too, pulled back last week, they have been on such an insane run after setting up for 20 years. That a few days pulling back isn't much to cause for alarm.
For now the energy sector is showing us that key support is in this 160 area, if this area holds up and it can climb back towards 180, then the ATH train continues. If we start to see this 160 area getting tested and breaking to the downside. Then the wild rally in Energy may be on its last legs. Either way, we know the key levels to keep an eye on.
The rest of the sectors are a mixed back of very obvious stage 4 breakdowns to be avoided such as Tech, Financials, Materials, Industrials, Healthcare & Consumer Discretionary stocks.
While sectors like Consumer Staples and Semi's are showing potential but they are not screaming to be bought.
As the market closed the week much stronger, the appearance of a few set ups have started to sprout up here and there. But it is still very limited as this overall bounce feels like a dead cat.
In the retracement higher it feels like we are out of the woods and will march back to highs, but that is rarely the case with time. So I will be keeping a close eye on names like NFLX through 100, GD through 360, CSCO that continues to flag out under 80, AMZN basing through 213, TNL through 72 and ULTA through 542.
But I am not betting the farm on any of these trades or looking to give them any room if they do not breakout with some volume. We are still very much in very clear stage 4 breakdowns in the major markets and major sectors. The winds are still pushing against the path we are trying to head towards. So less, in this market continues to be the path of least resistance. Save your energy for when the winds are at our backs.
From Bennett
Founder Big Picture Trading
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Macro Rotation Outlook
SPY
Dow Jones
Nasdaq
Mid Caps
Small Caps
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Sector Rotation
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Tech
Energy
Industrial
Telecom
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
Materials
Consumer Discretionary
Financials
REIT
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Defensive - sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
Consumer Staples
Healthcare
Bio Tech
Utilities
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Big Picture Set Up's
AMZN
CSCO
GD
NFLX
TNL
ULTA
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