Big Picture - Days To Take Notice

bennett zamani Updated on Aug 3, 2025

Market Outlook

Earlier this week on Tuesday, our fellow Italian trader Tessel called out that she saw the market reversing. Iinitially I told her that she was overthinking, as the market was in a very clear breakout stage. But she was early and right.

As the week progressed, sellers took control and held the market down. On Thursday, we got the day to take notice, with the market gapping up to new all-time highs and closing the day bearish engulfing.

It was a clear sign that sellers were controlling the price action. We knew going into the day that 630 in the S&P was the clear short-term pivot low to de-risk if it broke below. On Friday, we got a gap-down opening below that level as the market sold off into the end of the week.

Now mind you, the market is 3% off all-time highs, and we already know that it's wait-and-see mode from the active side of things.

My thinking broadly is that the breakout stage that we have been in since May is starting to change into a basing stage. I could see the market over the next few months trading in the 600 to 640 range in the S&P 500, or 500 to 575 in the QQQs. Impressive ranges for us to trade in.

Now we want this green trendline to hold up this week for the trend to continue and maybe it does. But charts have shown us over and over, that when consolidation periods continue to shrink with each new consolidation, eventually it can only shrink so much before a new pattern has to emerge.

Seeing this seller-controlled price action that Tessel called out early in the chat, the writing was on the wall. Let the market frustrate traders, while we side step it and enjoy life was my simple game plan going into the end of the week. Being at the track on Friday racing and reading, while continuing my calls with all of you, could not have been a better summer day spent. Instead of worrying about making money in SMCI or losing some in CSCO. My sell stops did what they were supposed to do, while I enjoyed my day.

Now August trading is historically slow. If there has been that one thing you've been pushing off to go do this summer, go do it. Before we know it, it will be fall, and the first Big Picture meetup will be right around the corner once the leaves start falling.

From Bennett

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Macro Rotation Outlook

SPY

Dow Jones

Nasdaq

Mid Caps

Small Caps

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Sector Rotation

Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.

Tech

Energy

Industrial

Telecom

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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.

Materials

Consumer Discretionary

Financials

REIT

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Defensive - sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.

Consumer Staples

Healthcare

Bio Tech

Utilities

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Big Picture Set Up's

AAPL

CSCO

SMCI

WMT

Lessons From The Track

Recently I sold one of my race bikes, a supermoto (for non-racers, it's basically a dirt bike with racing tires) and upgraded from a 2010 model to a basically brand new 2022 model. All in all, it was a pretty solid trade ,as it was really only cost me a comma day or two more after it was all said and done. While gaining a massive upgrade in performance and reliability.

Racing, like trading, from what I have seen, has extremely similar parallels. Most come to both with big egos, and both respective places humble those egos quickly. It's either emptied pockets or the other racer's taillights drifting off into the distance as it feels like they're flying by.

I'm no expert, as I still need to shave 2 seconds off my lap time to reach expert group speeds, but I can hold my own out there with most. After I threw my leg over my brand new shiny new toy, it was time to have some fun.

As I was getting used to this new bike, a racer came flying by me with grace last weekend. For an entire 20-minute session, I tried my hardest to catch up to this racer that kept a solid 50-yard lead on me, lap after lap.

After the session ended, I followed the rider off the track to their pit to chat them up. When the rider got off their bike and took off their helmet, it was a female rider, and I was even more shocked and impressed. Watching her body position corner after corner felt like listening to classical music, while most male riders ride as if we're listening to heavy metal.

After a high five or two, she gave me some advice and it was simple: time in the seat and practice, the same advice I give you about trading and investing. There is no shortcut.

On Friday, while I was racing, she was there again, and now I was starting to get used to the feel of what I could push this new bike to do. After shaving 10 seconds off my lap time from the prior weekend. Now she was chasing me down lap after lap, while exchanging laughs and cheering one another on.

She was helping me ride my lines cleaner on the track, while I was now pushing her to ride faster.

Improving and getting better can be fun, but the ego has to be left at the door. I have no issue telling you a woman kicked my ass on the track last weekend. Nor should you feel like you need to trade bigger size just because someone next to you has more in their account than you do.

Focus on improving for yourself no matter what it is and try to have a blast doing it. If there is a goal you are striving towards lets hear it in the future pacing channel!

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bennett zamani Designer

Experienced Designer

Updated on Aug 3, 2025