Market Outlook
The overall market did a great job climbing last week to tag the resistance trendline almost perfectly. But we are still overall in an extremely mild breakdown stage. Lower highs and lower lows confirm such a stage.
But the market is trying to poke out of it as Biotechs and Healthcare are getting all the cash that has been pulling out of Semi's over the last two weeks.
Eventually the party has to wind down, but its hard to see as it as it occurs, for Semi's after an 80% plus rally in 2 months, this sector needs a break. The last two weeks mark the first back to back down weeks Semi's have seen since April. As smart money is taking profits in Semi's, its quite clear where the money is going.
Bio Techs have broken out of there blue sky highs and have not looked back as the breakout perfectly aligns with the start of the weakness in Semi's. This macro breakout in Bio's has a measured move of nearly 70 points from the breakout level, which would give the sector a year end target of around $250 a share.
Healthcare as well, has also been on quite the run lately. Just like we saw Tech follow Semi's, we should expect Healthcare to continue to follow the Bio's.
Now when it comes to holiday trading, if the market is closing bullish leading into holidays such as July 4th, it can be wise to hold long. Now on the flip side, going into this major holiday, if the markets are acting weak going into this holiday, one could expect some short-term weakness to follow after the holiday.
We could expect a temporarily bullish move on Monday simply due to the holiday. But it does seem that we should expect to see support get tested in the Nasdaq and Tech names, along with Semi's and even Energy names.
While Bio's, Healthcare, Consumer Discreationary and Financials have been strong and we should expect that trend to continue for the time being.
Stock wise, our focus continues to be business as usual, finding high and tight bull flags or extremely defined bases that are getting equally as tight. Over the past few weeks there have been dozen's of 5-10%+ winners called out in the group with some amazing call outs from the members sharing there top idea's.
Usually summer trading feels like watching paint dry, but it has been an active summer so far, where risk has been very tight on our end. Keep sharing those ideas and asking questions.
From Bennett
Founder Big Picture Trading
P.S. A new book will be published this month.
_____________________________
Mark your calendars!
After spending the past year writting this book, we're excited to celebrate the one year anniversary of Big Picture Trading with the release of Dumb Money!
On July 15, our brand new swing trading book, Dumb Money, will be available for purchase.
Our biggest book yet, Dumb Money distills the most important market lessons we've learned over the past 20 years into one practical guide to master the art of swing trading.
_____________________________
Macro Rotation
SPY
Dow Jones
Nasdaq
Mid Caps
Small Caps
_____________________________
Sector Rotation
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Tech
Energy
Industrial
Telecom
_____________________________
What Big Picture Offers:
Looking to join a group of swing traders focusing on low risk trades?
Need help with your personal or business tax filings?
_____________________________
Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
Materials
Consumer Discretionary
Financials
REIT
_____________________________
Defensive - sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
Consumer Staples
Healthcare
Bio Tech
Utilities
_____________________________
_____________________________
Big Picture Set Up's
CHDN
EBAY
JAZZ
THO
WAT
Terms and Conditions Big Picture Trading (“Company”) is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or urgencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. The independent contractors and employees or affiliates of Company may hold positions in the stocks, or industries discussed here. You understand and acknowledge that there is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities. The Company, the authors, the publisher, and all affiliates of Company assume no responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results of any individual trader or trading system published by Company are not indicative of future returns by that trader or system, and are not indicative of future returns which be realized by you. In addition, the indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features of Company’s products (collectively, the “Information”) are provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
