Big Picture - Boring Bonds

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Big Picture - Boring Bonds
         

  
Market Outlook

We were gifted with a nice market climb last week as the S&P ticked new all time highs off the open on Friday. Going into Friday, we knew what to expect, the index's have been slowly shifting out of the easy stage 2 breakout market. As they are starting to shift into stage 3 topping patterns and for good reason. With this shift into the new stage as names start trading more range bound compared to the new recent high breakouts, that we have grown accustom to. Our style needs to adapt as well to the changing conditions. 

But lets take a step back for a moment. Since 2018 we have broadly been in a macro stage 2 breakout. It surely didnt feel like that in March of 2020, or for most of 2022 or for the start of 2025. But we have traded within these massive ranges for half a decade. Do not expect to see that changing any time soon. 

Back in April the last time we touched that support area of the channel, in the old Alpha Chat, we were calling out the 490 buys in the S&P. Fast forward to today, those buys when times were scary are yielding a 32% YTD return or a nearly 60% annual return. Who says you cant beat the market?

Up here as the market is less then 5% away from the upper resistance area of this macro channel. There is not much to squeeze broadly out of the index. 

This is why we should expect and look forward to some sideways action and here is way. 

Sure we are less then 5% away from the current resistance area, but if we can top out & consolidate. Then the market can ramp up to climb towards its next future resistance area down the line. Maybe its a tight consolidate like the arrow's I drew. Maybe its a slow year like 2022 or a fast bear market like 2025. Whichever it is, we will adapt and exploit it.

But for now, we have to be understanding that it is going to be very hard for the overall market to climb more then 5% higher from here over the next few months without some serious consoldation. 

In the back of your mind right now, the first though is "damn, trading is going to suck" but in reality its the opposite. The best deals are during rocky markets, right now the market is rock solid like a 30 year Verizon bond. Bonds are boring, 2% weekly ranges in the index are just as boring. 

When the markets are at highs and people's feeling of greed is just as high, its hard for them to take a step back and see the bigger picture. We are doing this now on a quiet Sunday afternoon. 

There are still plenty of A+ charts out there, great Blue Sky Breakouts and nice support buy back trades to take advantage of in the week ahead. Do not be shy, the more you can voice your ideas out, by posting the chart and your gameplan. The easier it will be to flush the top ideas out, then being afraid to speak up. 

                                                                           
From Bennett

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Macro Rotation Outlook

SPY
Dow Jones
Nasdaq 
Mid Caps
Small Caps
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Sector Rotation

Sensitive -  sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions. 

Tech
Energy 
Industrial
Telecom

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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
 
Materials
Consumer Discretionary
Financials
REIT
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Defensive - sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.

Consumer Staples
Healthcare
Bio Tech
Utilities

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Big Picture Set Up's

BSX

IDXX

LIN

MLM

PII

WMT

WST


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Side Lesson - Owning Your Day

 

As I continue making my rounds, calling each and every one of you, I recently had a great conversation with our member Faiz. He asked me, "Why do you run this business? You’ve got the car and the house, but what else drives you?"

Was it something extrinsic (like an Aston Martin DBS) or something intrinsic (like enjoyment)? For me, it’s always been about owning my day. No one tells me where I need to be, what I have to do, or when it needs to be done. I wake up when I choose, work when I want, and live life on my own terms.

That doesn’t mean I sit back. I still spend weekends writing this newsletter, mornings researching the market, evenings reading, and hours on the phone with you smart traders. But here’s the difference, it’s my choice.

That freedom is why I run this business. Just last week, I spent three days at the race track. Each hour had a 20-minute session where I pushed to beat my 1:40 lap time, knee down on the pavement. Then I’d hop off the track and jump back on the phone with Faiz or whoever was next on my list.

By the third day, as the sun set, most racers were rushing to pack up for work the next morning. But for the final session, it was just me and one other rider, battling lap after lap. I ended up winning (not to brag) and when we got off, he came over grinning saying I was "loco", talking about how much fun it was. That’s when it hit me: it was 5 p.m. on a Thursday. For everyone else, the day was ending. For me, it felt like a Saturday I owned. I raced, helped tax clients on extension, watched WMT climb, and shared trade ideas with the group, all in one day.

At the heart of it, that’s what investing is about: owning your day. Not the next car, the next vacation, or the next shiny goal. If you think about it long enough, the answer always comes back to freedom. And if you don’t own your day just yet, I truly hope you will soon.

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Terms and Conditions Big Picture Trading (“Company”) is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or urgencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. The independent contractors and employees or affiliates of Company may hold positions in the stocks, or industries discussed here. You understand and acknowledge that there is a very high degree of risk involved in trading securities. The Company, the authors, the publisher, and all affiliates of Company assume no responsibility or liability for your trading and investment results. It should not be assumed that the methods, techniques, or indicators presented in these products will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. Past results of any individual trader or trading system published by Company are not indicative of future returns by that trader or system, and are not indicative of future returns which be realized by you. In addition, the indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features of Company’s products (collectively, the “Information”) are provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
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