Market Outlook
Last week we started to see some choppy action as the market was glued to what Trump was or wasn't saying in regards to tariffs and his interest in Greenland, that cooled off by the end of the week.
It felt like a somewhat emotial trading week but on a very small scale, we had the market breaking a mini pivot low at mid week and by the end, were back to being less then 1% away from all time highs. So we surived the 2% drop from last week as the market held up at a pivot support area. The bears got there two days of glory, but the bulls came back by weeks end.
As long as this support trend line holds up, the breakout market continues, yet we know or should know that once that does break. That a shift into a range bound market is what should be expected, compared to the new ATH market that we have been in since May.
Last years laggards, continue to be this years leaders. Consumer Staples and Discreationaries continue to wake up this year. Along with Small and Mid Caps playing some catch up compared to the Larger Cap index's.
Across the board we are seeing more positive price action then negitive. Gold and Silver continue to rally into there own mania stages. The dollar is dropping like a stone (good for stocks) and most sector are rallying towards highs expect for Utilities.
Heading into the new week, we have alot going on. We have the FOMC rate decision and Powell press conference on Wednesday. Given what has been going on with him, I wouldn't bank on him cutting rates just to appease the President. As we have grown accustom to FED weeks, trading is often very slow or quiet going into the event, then once Powell starts talking, the market moves. Except some quite price action to kick off this week, unless there are some new tarriff related news. However as we saw last week, all the tarriff fears could muster was a measly 2% drop.
There are a few key mega caps reporting such as MSFT, META, TSLA and AAPL. Given most have been in the dumpster except for TSLA, they are in decent locations for some knee jerk reactions to the upside, if any are able to raise guidance.
On my end trading wise, being very tight with my risk has paid off well so far this year, and being very selectful. GILD was a nice example of this, it had all the key factors that we want to see in a breakout. Now that the name has finally broke to new ATHs after 10 years. It's time to be patient and let the weekly low trailing stop do the work for us.
Continue to call out your top ideas, ask questions and when in doubt raise the stop loss. This week should be one jam packed with some key moves after the FED.
From Bennett
Founder Big Picture Trading
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Macro Rotation Outlook
SPY
Dow Jones
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Mid Caps
Small Caps
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Sector Rotation
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Tech
Energy
Industrial
Telecom
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Consumer Staples
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Bio Tech
Utilities
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