Market Outlook
What a confusing market lately. For as long as I can remember this has to be one of the weirdest markets I've witnessed. On Wednesday the S&P was less then 1 point away from hitting a new all time high. But scanning most names, it would be hard to think the market was so close to an all time high.
When scanning the sectors, there were a handful on vertical climbs higher such as Utilities, Materials, Energy, Industrials and Consumer Staples. The only issue is these run ups have been so extreme, they have been unbuyable unless you wanted to blindly chase.
While Nasdaq, Tech, Consumer Discretionaires continue to pull in as Crypto gets taken to the woodshed.
The biggest red flag for caution this week was the Utilties sector.
That weekly candle is a very clear sign that smart money is rushing into a safe place to hide. The market is at highs but when you look under the hood, its often a coin flip between these two types of moves.
Now there are times when swing trading set ups are endless and there are periods when setups are hard to come by. Lately, it has been quite difficult to find a tight risk consolidation as most indivudal names are either booming or busting. This has been a time where less is more. Yet for some, that can be a hard thing to do, as we often feel like we need to be investing at all times or were falling behind.
I have been taking the less is more approach in 2026, as the market has been choppy with no real wounds taken on my end. A few 12-20% winners so far this year and a few breakeven losses to care less about. As I have tried to relay this message in private conversations where less is more. B and C set ups are better off not taken, then the headaches that come with them in this back and forth market.
My role is to help explain the markets hopfully in a simple way, while helping you limit losses and nudging you to hold your winners longer. The simple explanation is that this market is very confusing and confusing often means lower price action.
The longer the market continues to trade in this 3% range, the higher the likelyhood that a break occurs in either direction. All things lately continue to point towards a break lower.
This does not need to be a major market crash or even a correction type move lower, even just a break of the recent support area (675) down to 650 would be a nice shakeout that would shift the market into a 6% range.
Even if we got that move to 650, due to recency bias, that will feel like a major event as we have grown acustom to extremely low volatility. Just like when markets get crazy, we grow acustom to those wild days when they feel like there never going to end. Just as we may feel now that this tiny daily moves are going to continue.
Hanging out in cash right now has been a great idea, however it is still important to continue to scan your watchlists daily. This week ahead my focus continues to be the healthcare sector.
When swing set ups are hard to come by, I often will look for set ups in the sectors and Healthcare continues to flag out and turn prior resistance into support. I started a feeler position in Healthcare this week outside the normal weekly buying through M1. I'll continue to add through 292 and 295 as long as 285 holds up, building into this position until better swing trading set ups start to emerge. Which they always do with enough time.
In other news, we have been in full swing preparing your tax returns for those working with us this year. If you need any help with your taxes this year let me know and we would be glad to see if we can save you more then you did last year. I will be out in Salt Lake City, Utah for the week with a handful of members so if your in Utah area and want to meet up shoot me a message on Discord.
From Bennett
Founder Big Picture Trading
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Macro Rotation Outlook
SPY
Dow Jones
Nasdaq
Mid Caps
Small Caps
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Sector Rotation
Sensitive - sectors that have moderate correlations to overall market conditions.
Tech
Energy
Industrial
Telecom
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What Big Picture Offers:
Looking to join a group of swing traders focusing on low risk trades?
Need help with your personal or business tax filings?
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.
Materials
Consumer Discretionary
Financials
REIT
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Defensive - sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.
Consumer Staples
Healthcare
Bio Tech
Utilities
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Big Picture Set Up's
AS
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