Market Outlook
Even with the markets mild weakness last week, we were still able to find some pockets of strength. But when the markets are hugging support and forming lower highs, the writing is often on the wall. Any time there is a market or a stock that is just hanging out near its respective recent lows and you can just wait to buy the exact price you wish to buy. That name is more then likely rolling over and a lesson that my much younger self took years to fully understand.
As the S&P spent the end of the week flirting with its 740 support level as the QQQs were doing the same with its 684 level. It seems more than likely that we should expect those levels to break to the downside in the coming week.
Sometimes, and even Monday the markets may try to defend those areas as the support buyers come out to buy what they think is cheap stock, but with the overwhelming amount of lower highs we have seen over the last few weeks, I find it hard to believe that this is the time that trend breaks.
For the QQQs, if this 684 area breaks next week, the measured move would be down to the 620. Which would be about a 50% retracement of the overall up move.
For the S&P if we get a confirmed break of this 740 area, the measured move is towards this 715 area. Which for both, in the scheme of things are nothing to really lose much sleep over. This isn't sound the fire alarms and scream "fire", its just that we should expect some lower price action next week. Resulting in coming into the week with more of a defensive approach makes more sense than trying to come out guns blazing.
We are seeing a few other clues of the upcoming weakness, such as the strength in Utilities.
Or sectors like Telecom and Consumer Discretionary stocks getting smoked last week.
Chart wise and trading wise, on my end, I have been keeping a few narrow list of names and focusing on swinging 1-2 names while as always keeping risk tight. Much easier to find 1 or 2 of your best ideas, then spreading ourselves thin in a handful of names. Going into the week ahead, if the market decides to somehow hold support here and climb higher there are a handful of tight risk set ups at the bottom of this email to have us ready for the week ahead.
P.S. just wanted to say thank you for everyone who pre ordered the book, you all should be getting them in the mail this week. For everyone else the link is below if you would like to read the 40+ new chapters in our latest book Dumb Money!
From Bennett
Founder Big Picture Trading
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It's crazy how time flies, it has been a year since Big Picture Trading has opened and during this past year I have taken all of the most important lessons and mistakes that I have learned over the last 20 years of trading and investing and put them into Dumb Money.
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Cyclical - sectors that are more sensitive overall market conditions.



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Defensive - sectors that tend to outperforming during sub par market conditions.




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AX

BAP

BLBD

BLLN

DVA

EWTX

MO

RRX

THO

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