Market Outlook
"Far more money has been lost by investors trying to anticipate corrections than lost in corrections themselves"
Peter Lynch
Over the last two weeks we have witnessed one of the fastest 12% rallies the market has seen in over 75 years. If you "missed" this rally, trust me millions of people missed it because this was such an out in left field trick for Mr Market to pull. No one saw it coming, myself included, other then Mr Hindsight.
The lesson that keeps getting hammered in my mind and hopfully yours is why we have two simple approaches to the market. My simple goal is to have 90% of my assets invested for the long term in the Big Picture Model. That I contribute to on a daily basis in relatively small amounts. By doing that we consistenly dollar cost average in the market. We buy the dips without thinking and continue to buy new highs when it often feels so hard to do so in the moment. For anyone following this method for any period over the last 5 years, your account as of reading this has to be at all time highs.
If it is, and you want to show off your hard work lets see it in the chat as it can be motivation for others to see the proof from this simple plan from the larger portion of our respective assets.
Now that's mine and hopfully most of your 90% bucket of your assests. The other 10% is where we try to beat what the Big Picture Model does for us. If we can't beat the market, then its a shoulder shrug as the smaller pool of assests cannot really drag down the performace of the long term accounts (BP, 401ks, etc). But if you can beat the benchmark even by a small margin, its a win and win.
If you are following this approach and you missed this rally, did you really miss it? The answer is no. I took a few trades last week and most were nothing to lose sleep over. While my long term accounts had the biggest upswing I have every seen since I was buying Ford for a $1 in 2008.
If you feel your accounts are not set up in this manner and want me to go through them with you to see if we can clean it up and make it more systematic let me now.
Now back to this insane market that came out of left field.
I will say it is hard to make bold claims about the outlook of the market after big swings. 3 weeks ago when the S&P was "h" over down through 640, it felt like 600 was next up. Where now it feels like S&P 770 is next up in the coming weeks. But at both ends of the extremes, we need to pull back the thinking to more rational thoughts.
Now I do still think we see 770 in the S&P this year, but I am not banking on it to happen in a short sprint. As most were left in the dust in this vertical rally. The market and names will hang out at these lofty levels for the chasers to chase. But just as fast as they climb, its just as often how fast they can fall. Bullish engulfing candles one after another are great things to hold onto, until the gap down comes to change the trend.
Just look at CAR, one of the craziest charts of the year, as insane as this run up has been, at any point that you got in and had a PLOD stop in, you are still in this crazy trade. If the market wants to continue its crazy climb, it too, should respect the PLOD trail. Now that there have been crazy run ups in mega cap names, like this GOOGL below. 
As they climb back to there respective prior ATHs, we should expect resistance to hold true at these major retest areas. Euphoria often has us forgetting that support and resistance still hold true in the markets. As the mega caps run back and tag these prior levels and start to stall that will be one factor that will cool the markets vertical climb.
This is not the time to look to chase names that have already ralled in a straight line 10-20% off there recent lows. But there still are plenty of names that are basing out or setting up in the fashion that we always look for.
Let go of the thought that you will have another chance to buy at correction prices. In the near future if we get a second chance to buy at those levels, it will have far more disastrous results then that thought it now. For now appreciate that your long term accounts should be at new highs and now you just need to find safe spaces to part your short term capital.
From Bennett
Founder Big Picture Trading
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